Economic Release Snapshot: Economic Growth Beats Expectations

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of January 22

Fourth-quarter GDP growth, advance estimate (Thursday)

• Expected/prior quarter annualized GDP growth: +2.0%/+4.9%
• Actual annualized GDP growth: +3.3%

The economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter, supported by better-than-expected personal consumption growth. This result capped off a strong year for the economy, but economists expect to see notably slower growth throughout 2024.

Durable goods orders, December, preliminary (Thursday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: +1.5%/+5.5%
• Actual durable goods orders change: +0.0%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.2%/+0.5%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.6%

Headline durable goods orders came in below expectations in December, partly due to a slowdown in volatile transportation orders. Core orders, on the other hand, beat expectations, signaling continued business investment.

Personal spending and personal income, December (Friday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.3%/+0.4%
• Actual personal income change: +0.3%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.5%/+0.4%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.7%

Personal income and spending continued to rise in December. Income growth aligned with economist estimates while spending growth came in higher than expected.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of January 29

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, January (Tuesday)
Consumer confidence is set to rise in January, which will mark three consecutive months of improving confidence, if estimates hold.

FOMC rate decision, January (Wednesday)
The Fed is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the conclusion of its January meeting. Fed chair Jerome Powell may hint at a potential rate cut at future meetings during the post-meeting press conference.

ISM Manufacturing, January (Thursday)
Manufacturer confidence is expected to improve modestly in January after improving more than expected in December. Despite the anticipated improvement, the index is expected to remain in contractionary territory during the month.

Employment report, January (Friday)
Economists expect to see a solid 180,000 jobs added in January following an unexpected hiring acceleration in December.