Economic Release Snapshot: Durable Goods Orders Rebound in February

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of March 25

Durable goods orders, February, preliminary (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: +1.0%/–6.9%
• Actual durable goods orders change: +1.4%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: +0.4%/–0.3%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.5%

Durable goods orders partially rebounded in February following a large decline in January. The January slump in orders was largely due to a slowdown in volatile aircraft orders; however, core durable goods orders showed a more moderate decline and rebound to start the year.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month consumer confidence: 107.0/104.8
• Actual consumer confidence: 104.7

Consumer confidence fell in March, marking two consecutive months of declining confidence. While consumer views on current economic conditions improved, future expectations unexpectedly soured in March.

Personal income and personal spending, February (Thursday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.4%/+1.0%
• Actual personal income change: +0.3%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.5%/+0.2%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.8%

Personal income and spending growth continued in February; an impressive 0.8 percent rise in personal spending marked the largest monthly increase in more than a year.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of April 1

ISM Manufacturing, March (Monday)
Manufacturer confidence is expected to improve in March, but the index is set to remain in contractionary territory during the month.

ISM Services, March (Wednesday)
Economists expect to see unchanged service sector confidence in March after the index fell more than expected in February.

Trade balance, February (Thursday)
The international trade deficit is expected to narrow modestly in February after widening to start the year.

Employment report, March (Friday)
Hiring growth is expected to slow in March following two months of strong hiring to start the year. Despite the anticipated slowdown in hiring, the unemployment rate is set to fall from 3.9 percent in February to 3.8 percent in March.