Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Sentiment Soars in January

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of January 15

Retail sales, December (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.4%/+0.3%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.6%

Retail sales increased more than expected in December, which was a good sign for personal consumption growth to end the year.

Industrial production, December (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month production monthly change: –0.1%/+0.0%
• Actual production monthly change: +0.1%

Industrial production grew more than expected in December, partly due to an unexpected rise in manufacturing production.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, January (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 39/37
• Actual sentiment: 44

Home builder sentiment improved more than expected in January, as the index rose from 37 in December to 44 in January against calls for a more modest increase to 39. Despite the improvement, the index still sits in contractionary territory, indicating continued headwinds for the home building industry.

Housing starts and building permits, December (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: –8.7%/+10.8%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: –4.3%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: +0.7%/–2.1%
• Actual building permits monthly change: +1.9%

Housing starts and building permits came in mixed in December, as starts declined and permits rose. A sharp decline in single-family home construction primarily drove the decline in housing starts.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, January, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 70.1/69.7
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 78.8

Consumer sentiment unexpectedly improved in January, as the index rose to its highest level in more than two years. The improvement was widespread, as consumer views on current economic conditions and future expectations improved notably during the month.

Existing home sales, December (Friday)

• Expected/prior month existing home sales monthly change: +0.3%/+0.8%
• Actual existing home sales monthly change: –1.0%

Existing home sales fell modestly in December, capping off the worst year for sales since 1995. High mortgage rates, a lack of supply, and rising home prices all served as headwinds for home sales throughout the year.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of January 22

Fourth-quarter GDP growth, advance estimate (Thursday)
The advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth is set to show slowing growth during the month, partly due to a slowdown in personal consumption growth during the quarter.

Durable goods orders, December, preliminary (Thursday)
Headline and core durable goods orders are set to increase for the second consecutive month in December. If estimates hold, this will be a good sign for business investment to end the year.

Personal income and personal spending, December (Friday)
Personal income and spending are set to rise in December. If estimates prove to be accurate, this will mark nine consecutive months of increased spending.