Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Sentiment Slides in October

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of October 7

Trade balance, August (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior trade deficit: ‒$70.5 billion/‒$78.9 billion
• Actual trade deficit: ‒$70.4 billion

The trade deficit shrank slightly more than anticipated in August due, in part, to a 2 percent rise in exports during the month. This brought the monthly trade gap to its smallest level in five months.

FOMC meeting minutes, September (Wednesday)
The September FOMC meeting minutes showed that the majority of board members favored the 50 bp interest rate cut that was announced at the conclusion of the meeting, while a handful of participants indicated that they favored a smaller cut.

Consumer Price Index, September (Thursday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.5%/+3.2%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.3%/+3.2%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +2.4%/+3.3%

Year-over-year consumer inflation continued to improve, falling to a three-year low of 2.4 percent in September.

Producer Price Index, September (Friday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.1%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.0%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.9%/+2.6%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.6%/+2.6%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.8%/+2.8%

Headline and core producer inflation increased more than expected on a year-over-year basis in September.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, October, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 71.0/70.1
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 68.9

Consumer sentiment fell more than expected to start October. Consumer views on both current conditions and future expectations soured during the month.

Reports for the Week of October 14

Retail sales, September (Thursday)
Retail sales are set to improve in September after surprising to the upside in August. Core sales are also set to accelerate during the month.

Industrial production, September (Thursday)
Industrial production is set to pull back modestly in September after surging in August.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, October (Thursday)
Home builder confidence is expected to improve yet remain in contractionary territory in October.

Housing starts and building permits, September (Friday)
These two measures of new home construction are set to fall in September after rebounding more than expected in August.