Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Sentiment Improves in February

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of February 6

International trade report, December (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior trade deficit: –$68.5 billion/–$61.0 billion
• Actual trade deficit: –$67.4 billion

The trade deficit widened less than expected in December. Imports increased 1.3 percent during the month, while exports fell 0.9 percent. Despite the increased deficit, the trade balance remained well above the lows we saw in early 2022 to end the year.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment, February preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior sentiment: 65/64.9
• Actual sentiment: 66.4

Consumer sentiment improved more than expected to start the month, driven by improving consumer views on the current economic conditions. This better-than-expected result brought the index to its highest level in more than a year.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of February 13

Consumer Price Index, January (Tuesday)

Headline consumer prices are set to rise in January following a modest decline in December. On a year-over-year basis, consumer inflation is expected to decelerate to start the year.

Retail sales, January (Wednesday)

Retail sales are set to rebound in January following a decline in December. Part of the anticipated increase is due to rising gas prices during the month; however, core sales are also expected to grow, indicating healthy levels of consumer demand.

Industrial production, January (Wednesday)

Industrial production is expected to improve to start the year, supported by rising manufacturing output during the month.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, February (Wednesday)

Home builder confidence is expected to increase modestly in February following a larger-than-expected increase in January.

Housing starts and building permits, January (Thursday)

Building permits are expected to increase modestly during the month, while housing starts are set to decline.

Producer Price Index, January (Thursday)

Both headline and core producer prices are set to rise in January; however, on a year-over-year basis, both measures of producer inflation are expected to slow.