Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Inflation Slows in May

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of June 12

Consumer Price Index, May (Tuesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.4%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.4%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +4.9%/+5.5%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +4.1%/+5.2%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +4.0%/+5.3%
  

Producer Price Index, May (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.1%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.3%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.3%/+3.3%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.5%/+3.1%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.1%/+2.8%

Producer inflation showed slowing year-over-year growth in May. Headline producer price growth fell to 1.1 percent, supported by a larger-than-expected drop in producer prices.

FOMC rate decision (Wednesday)

The Fed left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at its June meeting, marking the first pause in regular rate hikes in more than a year. Despite the pause in June, Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that a hike in July is still possible.

Retail sales, May (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: –0.2%/+0.4%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.3%
• Expected/prior month core retail sales monthly change: +0.2%/+0.5%
• Actual core retail sales monthly change: +0.2%

Retail sales growth came in well above expectations in May, marking two consecutive months of better-than-expected sales growth.

Industrial production, May (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior month production change: +0.1%/+0.5%
• Actual production change: –0.2%

Industrial production fell modestly in May after increasing more than expected in April. Despite the drop in headline industrial production, manufacturing output continued to grow in May.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, June, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 60/59.2
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 63.9

Consumer sentiment improved more than expected in June due, in part, to falling inflation expectations. One-year consumer inflation expectations fell from 4.2 percent in May to 3.3 percent in June, which helped support the index improvement.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of June 19

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, June (Monday)

Home builder confidence is set to increase modestly in June, with calls for the index to rise from 50 in May to 51 in June.

Housing starts and building permits, May (Tuesday)

Housing starts and building permits are set to come in mixed in May, with starts expected to fall and permits expected to increase modestly.

Existing home sales, May (Thursday)

Existing home sales are expected to fall in May, which would mark three consecutive months of declining sales.