Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Inflation Moderates in November

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of December 12

Consumer Price Index, November (Tuesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +7.7%/+6.3%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +7.3%/+6.1%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +7.1%/+6.0%

Consumer prices increased less than expected in November, with prices up 0.1 percent. On a year-over-year basis, headline consumer prices increased 7.1 percent, marking the lowest level of consumer inflation this year.

FOMC meeting, December (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior fed funds rate upper limit: 4.5%/4.0%
• Actual fed funds rate upper limit: 4.5%

The Fed hiked the federal funds rate by 50 bps at its December meeting, which investors and economists expected. Going forward, the Fed is projected to slow the pace of hikes in 2023.

Retail sales, November (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: –0.2%/+1.3%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: –0.6%
• Expected/prior month core retail sales monthly change: 0.0%/+0.8%
• Actual core retail sales monthly change: –0.2%

Headline and core retail sales both fell more than expected in November as consumers were pressured by still-high inflation and high rates from the Fed.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of December 19

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, December (Monday)
Home builder confidence is expected to improve modestly in December after falling every month this year.

Housing starts and building permits, November (Tuesday)
Both starts and permits are expected to slow during the month, following a similar decline in October.

Existing home sales, November (Wednesday)
Existing home sales are expected to decline for the tenth month in a row, with the annualized pace of sales set to fall to levels last seen during the initial 2020 lockdowns.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, December (Wednesday)
Consumer confidence is set to increase modestly in December after falling in October and November.

Personal income and spending, November (Friday)
Both personal income and personal spending are set to show continued growth in November; however, the pace of the increases is expected to slow.

Durable goods orders, preliminary November (Friday)
Durable goods orders are set to fall in November due, in part, to a slowdown in volatile transportation orders.