Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Inflation Comes in Hot

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of April 8

Consumer Price Index, March (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.2%/+3.8%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.4%/+3.7%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.5%/+3.8%

Consumer prices rose more than expected in March, highlighting the Fed’s challenges in its ongoing efforts to lower inflation back to its 2 percent target.

FOMC meeting minutes, March (Wednesday)

The minutes from the March Fed meeting indicated that the Fed remains data-dependent when making monetary policy decisions. This meeting included discussions on potentially tapering the Fed’s balance sheet run-off later in the year.

Producer Price Index, March (Thursday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.6%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.2%/+0.2%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.6%/+2.1%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.2%/+2.3%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.1%/+2.4%

Producer inflation was largely in line with economist estimates, helping calm concerns about rising inflationary pressure across the economy during March.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, April, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 79.0/79.4
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 77.9

Consumer sentiment fell modestly in April after hitting a two-year high in March. Consumer expectations soured during the month, partly due to rising inflation expectations.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of April 15

Retail sales, March (Monday)
The March retail sales report is set to show solid growth, which would mark two consecutive months of rising sales.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, April (Monday)
Home builder confidence is expected to improve modestly in April after rising more than expected in March.

Housing starts and building permits, March (Tuesday)
Economists expect to see housing starts and building permits fall in March after rising more than expected in February.

Industrial production, March (Tuesday)
Industrial production is set to improve for the second consecutive month, partly driven by rising manufacturing production.

Existing home sales, March (Thursday)
Existing home sales are set to fall in March after improving more than expected in February. High prices, still-high mortgage rates, and a lack of supply are all expected to serve as headwinds for home sales during the month.