Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Confidence Improves

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of June 26

Durable goods orders, May, preliminary (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior durable goods orders monthly change: –0.9%/+1.2%
• Actual durable goods orders change: +1.7%
• Expected/prior core durable goods orders monthly change: 0%/–0.6%
• Actual core durable goods orders change: +0.6%

Both headline and core durable goods orders increased more than expected during the month, signaling solid business spending in May.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, June (Tuesday)

• Expected/prior Consumer Confidence Index: 104/102.5
• Actual Consumer Confidence Index: 109.7
  

Consumer confidence improved more than expected in June, which brought the index to its highest level since early 2022. This result was supported, in part, by falling consumer inflation expectations.

Personal spending and personal income, May (Friday)

• Expected/prior personal income monthly change: +0.3%/+0.4%
• Actual personal income change: +0.4%
• Expected/prior personal spending monthly change: +0.2%/+0.6%
• Actual personal spending change: +0.1%

Personal spending increased less than expected in May, but income growth came in above expectations. This marks two consecutive months with increased spending, highlighting the continued resilience of the consumer.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of July 3

ISM Manufacturing, June (Monday)

Manufacturer confidence is expected to improve slightly in June. But even with the increase, the index is set to remain in contractionary territory.

FOMC meeting minutes, June (Wednesday)

The minutes from the Fed’s last meeting in June are set to be released on Wednesday. Economists will be reading these minutes closely for hints on the future path of monetary policy following the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged.

International trade balance, May (Thursday)

The trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly in May, supported by a narrowing in the trade gap for goods during the month.

ISM Services, June (Thursday)

Service sector confidence is set to increase in June after falling notably in May. Any improvement in the index would be a positive sign for future business spending.

Employment report, June (Friday)

Economists expect to see continued hiring during June, with forecasts calling for a strong 200,000 jobs added.