Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer Confidence Falls in October

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of October 9

Producer Price Index, September (Wednesday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.7%/+0.2%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.5%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.0%/+2.5%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.6%/+2.3%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +2.2%/+2.7%

Headline and core producer prices increased more than expected in September due, in part, to rising oil and gas prices during the month.

FOMC meeting minutes, September (Wednesday)

The Fed’s September meeting minutes showed that the Fed remains committed to combating inflation through restrictive monetary policy despite uncertainty surrounding future economic conditions.

Consumer Price Index, September (Thursday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.6%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.7%/+4.3%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.6%/+4.1%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.7%/+4.1%

Headline consumer inflation remained unchanged on a year-over-year basis in September, while core consumer inflation fell to a two-year low.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, October, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 67.0/68.1
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 63

Consumer sentiment fell more than expected in October due to worsening consumer views on current and future economic conditions.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of October 16

Retail sales, September (Tuesday)

Retail sales are set to grow modestly in September following a larger-than-expected increase in August.

Industrial production, September (Tuesday)

Industrial production is expected to remain unchanged in September, and manufacturing production is set to fall during the month.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, October (Tuesday)

Economists expect to see slightly lower home builder confidence in October due, in part, to rising mortgage rates.

Building permits and housing starts, September (Wednesday)

These two measures of new home construction are set to come in mixed in September, with permits set to fall and starts expected to rebound following a decline in August.

Existing home sales, September (Thursday)

Sales of existing homes are set to fall for the fourth consecutive month in September, as rising prices and mortgage rates are set to weigh on prospective home buyers.