Economic Release Snapshot: Consumer and Producer Prices on the Rise

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Reports for the Week of February 13

Consumer Price Index, January (Tuesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.1%/+0.4%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.5%/+0.4%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.5%/+0.4%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +6.5%/+5.7%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +6.2%/+5.5%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +6.4%/+5.6%

Headline consumer prices increased 0.5 percent during the month, as expected. On a year-over-year basis, consumer inflation continued to decelerate.

Retail sales, January (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +2.0%/–1.1%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +3.0%
• Expected/prior month core retail sales monthly change: +0.9%/–0.4%
• Actual core retail sales monthly change: +2.6%

Retail sales rebounded notably in January following two months of declines to end 2022. The rise in headline sales was partially supported by rising gas prices during the month; however, core sales, excluding auto and gas sales, increased more than expected.

Industrial production, January (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month production change: +0.5%/–1.0%
• Actual production change: 0%

Industrial production was unchanged during the month. This was due, in part, to unseasonably warm weather that lowered demand for heating. Manufacturing output, on the other hand, increased 1 percent in January.

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, February (Wednesday)

• Expected/prior month sentiment: 37/35
• Actual sentiment: 42

Home builder sentiment increased more than expected in February, marking two consecutive months of improved confidence to start the year. Despite the improvement in February, the index still sits well below the post-pandemic highs we saw in 2021 and 2022, indicating continued headwinds for the home building industry.

Housing starts and building permits, January (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month housing starts monthly change: –1.9%/–3.4%
• Actual housing starts monthly change: –4.5%
• Expected/prior month building permits monthly change: +1.0%/–1.0%
• Actual building permits monthly change: +0.1%

Housing starts and building permits were mixed in January, as starts declined more than expected while permits saw a modest increase. This now marks five consecutive months of declining housing starts.

Producer Price Index, January (Thursday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: –0.2%/+0.3%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.4%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.7%/+0.5%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +6.5%/+5.8%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +5.4%/+4.9%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +6.0%/+5.4%

Both headline and core producer prices increased more than expected in January; however, on a year-over-year basis, both measures of producer inflation continued to moderate to start the year.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of February 21

Existing home sales, January (Tuesday)

Existing home sales are once again expected to decline, which would mark 12 straight months of declining sales.

FOMC meeting minutes, February (Wednesday)

The February FOMC meeting minutes are set to be released on Wednesday. Economists and investors will closely monitor the release for any hints on the future path of monetary policy.

Personal income and personal spending, January (Friday)

The January personal income and spending reports are expected to show a rebound in spending and continued income growth to start the year.