Economic Release Snapshot: Inflation Accelerates in February

Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.

Reports for the Week of March 11

Consumer Price Index, February (Tuesday)

• Prior monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.3%/+0.4%
• Expected monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.3%
• Actual monthly CPI/core CPI growth: +0.4%/+0.4%
• Prior year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.1%/+3.9%
• Expected year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.1%/+3.7%
• Actual year-over-year CPI/core CPI growth: +3.2%/+3.8%

Headline and core consumer inflation accelerated in February, with year-over-year consumer inflation ticking up to 3.2 percent during the month. Rising costs for shelter, gas, and used cars all contributed to the rise in inflation.

Retail sales, February (Thursday)

• Expected/prior month retail sales monthly change: +0.8%/–1.1%
• Actual retail sales monthly change: +0.6%

Retail sales rose in February, but the 0.6 percent increase came in below economist forecasts for the month. This lackluster result followed a downwardly revised 1.1 percent drop in sales in January.

Producer Price Index, February (Thursday)

• Prior monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.5%
• Expected monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.3%/+0.2%
• Actual monthly PPI/core PPI growth: +0.6%/+0.3%
• Prior year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.0%/+2.0%
• Expected year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.2%/+1.9%
• Actual year-over-year PPI/core PPI growth: +1.6%/+2.0

Producer prices also rose more than expected in February, with the 0.6 percent rise in headline prices during the month marking the largest monthly increase since August 2023.

Industrial production, February (Friday)

• Expected/prior month production change: 0.0%/–0.5%
• Actual production change: +0.1%

Industrial production increased more than expected in February, partly due to a 0.8 percent increase in manufacturing production during the month.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, March, preliminary (Friday)

• Expected/prior month consumer sentiment index: 77.1/76.9
• Actual consumer sentiment index: 76.5

Consumer sentiment fell in March against calls for a modest improvement. Worsening consumer expectations drove the decline in the index.

Upcoming Reports for the Week of March 18

National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, March (Monday)
Home builder confidence is expected to remain unchanged in March after rising to a six-month high in February.

Housing starts and building permits, February (Tuesday)
Economists expect to see housing starts and building permits rebound in February after falling more than expected in January.

FOMC rate decision, March (Wednesday)
The Fed is expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at the conclusion of its March meeting. Economists and investors will be keeping a close watch on the post-meeting press release as well as Fed chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference for potential hints on the future path of monetary policy.

Existing home sales, February (Thursday)
Existing home sales are set to fall in February after improving more than expected to start the year. High prices, still-high mortgage rates, and a lack of supply are all expected to serve as headwinds for home sales during the month.