Looking for the Next Bus: ETFs and Passive Investing

Oil Prices: Will Things Be Different This Time?

Monday Update: Housing Still Strong

Volatility—It’s a Real Drag

Time Horizons and Why They Matter

2017 Vs. 1999: Now What Should We Do?

2017 Vs. 1999: Could It Be Different This Time?

Monday Update: Weak Economic Data Across the Board

2017 Vs. 1999: When Will the Storm Hit?

Appearance on CNBC's Trading Nation, June 15, 2017 [Video]

If 2017 = 1999, Does 2018 = 2000?

1999 v2.0: How Similar Are 1999 and 2017?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 13, 2017 [Video]

Appearance on TheStreet, June 13, 2017 [Video]

Some Thoughts on the Fed and Recent Tech Stock Performance

Monday Update: Service Sector Down, Remains Healthy

From Super Thursday to Freaky Friday: Why Are Markets Rising?

Super Thursday: What It Means (and What It Doesn’t)

Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2017

Monday Update: Economy Starting to Hit Its Limits

Market Thoughts for June 2017 [Video]

Is This 1999 v2.0?

Lessons in Preparing a Market and Economic Outlook

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Weak Headlines but Positive Details

What’s Up with Bitcoin?

Has Market Complacency Reached a Peak?

The Connection Between Economic Policies and Political Populism

A Deeper Look at Politics and Populism

Monday Update: Housing and Industry Look Strong

Opioids, Airlines, and Investment Risk: The Common Denominator

No, It’s Still Not Time to Worry About the Markets

Washington Turmoil Creates Uncertainty for Investors

A Reminder About the Big Picture

Monday Update: Inflation Low, Confidence and Spending Up

Is China Throwing Out Recession Signals?

Distinguishing Between Signals and Noise

Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2017

Monday Update: Outlook Positive Despite Mixed Results

Economic Slowdown Averted?

Markets and U.S. Politics: Time + Distance = A Different Perspective

A Week in Budapest

Market Thoughts for May 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: More Signs of Slowing Growth

Sell in May and Go Away?

The Trump Tax Plan: What You Need to Know

Political Risk Update: Responding to Reader Comments

Political Risk Update: France and the U.S. Budget

Monday Update: Despite Some Weakness, Growth Continues

When Assessing the Economy, Mind the Gaps

With French Election, Potential for Economic Shake-Up

Why “Run in Circles, Scream and Shout” Is the Wrong Response

Politics, Taxes, and Other Fun Stuff

Monday Update: Retail Sales Disappoint Despite Strong Sentiment

Mr. Trump Goes to Washington

Moment of Truth: Will the Market Meet Expectations This Earnings Season?

Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2017

Appearance on CNBC’s Nightly Business Report, April 6, 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Amid Continuing Growth, Some Signs of Weakness

Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2017

March Jobs Report Preview

A Wall Street Perspective

Market Weather Report: Spring 2017

Market Thoughts for April 2017 [Video]

Monday Update: Consumers Confident, Just Not Spending Much

The Market’s April Fools’ Day Jokes

Today's GDP Report (and What to Expect in Q2)

Brexit Begins: Should U.S. Investors Care?

Congress, the Debt Ceiling, and the Stock Market

Monday Update: Housing Market Keeps Tightening, Business Orders Still Growing

The Health Care Vote and the Stock Market

Investors Feeling More Greedy Than Fearful

What About Yesterday’s Stock Market Pullback?

Is Spring on the Way for the Economy?

Monday Update: Mixed Data, But Continued Growth Likely

Three Steps and a Stumble

Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2017

Market Valuations and Future Returns

How Can We Tell If the Market Is Overvalued?

Monday Update: Strong Jobs Report Paves Way for Rate Hike

Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2017

February Jobs Report Preview

The Best of Times, the Worst of Times

Earnings Update: As Expected, Companies Beat Expectations

Monday Update: More Surprising Gains in Confidence

It’s Not All About US

Dow 21K: How Far Can the Rally Run?

Market Thoughts for March 2017 [Video]

Trump’s Address to Congress: What to Watch For

Monday Update: Housing Continues to Improve, Fed Remains Confident

The Price Is Right—Or Is It?

What Explains Long-Term Returns?

Another Look at the Long Run

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Consumers Lead the Way

Thinking About the Long Run

Why Isn’t Political Turmoil Shaking the Market?

What a Difference a Year Makes

The Stock Market and Me: It’s Complicated

Monday Update: Plenty of Data This Week

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, February 10, 2017 [Video]

Long-Term Needs, Short-Term Focus

The Velocity of Money: 2017 Edition

Monthly Market Risk Update: February 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2017

Monday Update: Picking Up Speed

Two Cheers for the Jobs Report

For the Market, Every Day’s Groundhog Day

What Will the Fed Do Next?

Market Thoughts for February 2017 [Video]

Political Turmoil Could Restrain Market in 2017

Monday Update: More Signs of Slowing

How a Border Tax Could Backfire on the U.S. Economy

Dow 20K: Just a Number?

Trump’s Trade Agenda: Benefits and Costs

Rates May Rise Faster Than Anyone Expects

Monday Update: Growing But Slowing

Appearance on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange, January 23, 2017 [Video]

The Economy Under President Trump

Earnings, Valuations, and the Stock Market

Q4 Earnings: Expect to Beat Expectations?

Monday Update: Retail Spending Weaker Than Expected

Monthly Market Risk Update: January 2017

Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2017

Confidence: What Is It, Anyway?

Economic Recovery: All Smoke and Mirrors?

Monday Update: 2017 Off to a Good Start

Solid Jobs Report Confirms Strength of Labor Market

Symptoms, Diseases, and the Fed

What Could Go Wrong in 2017?

Consumers and Business Head Confidently into New Year

Market Thoughts for January 2017 [Video]

As 2017 Dawns, Much to Be Grateful For

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 28, 2016 [Video]

3 Questions Investors Should Ask in 2017

Monday Update: Confidence Improves as Consumer Fundamentals Pause

Merry Christmas to All

No Cash, No Carry: The Demonetization of the Indian Economy

Here Comes Santa Claus

Monday Update: Data Less Encouraging

The Boston Tea Party and Democracy Today

Fed’s More Hawkish Outlook Surprises Markets

The Stock Market Giveth and the Bond Market Taketh Away

Monthly Market Risk Update: December 2016

Monday Update: Business and Consumer Confidence Still Rising

Dow 20,000 in Sight

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, December 8, 2016 [Video]

Floating-Rate Strategies: You Might Not Get What You Want

Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2016

Should I Invest Outside the U.S.?

Monday Update: More Strong Data for Consumers and Business

Should You Be Worried About the Strong Dollar?

Market Thoughts for December 2016 [Video]

Problems . . .

The Stock Market's Rise: Will It Continue?

Market Records and Your Investments

Monday Update: Home Sales and Business Orders Strong

Black Friday by the Numbers

Thanksgiving Food for Thought: The Parable of the Turkey

Post-Election Bond Rates and the Stock Market

Monday Update: Consumers Still Shopping

2017 Forecast: Things Are Looking Up

Post-Election Bond Yields and Fixed Income

The Trouble with “Low-Volatility” Strategies, Part II

Trump’s Policies and the Law of Unintended Consequences

Monday Update: Better Than Expected

The Trump Era: What Happens Now?

The Trump Bounce and the Monthly Market Risk Update: November 2016

Election Surprise: For the Economy, Maybe Just Another Bump in the Road

Appearance on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange, November 9, 2016 [Video]

Get Out and Vote!

Monday Update: Generally Good News Points to Continuing Growth

Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2016

In Austin, Grateful to Be Giving Back

3 Big Themes that Won't End with the Election

Market Thoughts for November 2016 [Video]

Election Countdown: One Week to Go

Monday Update: Amid Disappointing Data, Economy Still Growing

Strong GDP Report: Treat or Trick?

The Employment Boom Gets Louder

Reasons to Be Cheerful About the Market

What Does the AT&T/Time Warner Merger Mean for the Market?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, October 24, 2016 [Video]

Monday Update: Industry Does Better as Housing Slows

What It Would Take to Rig the U.S. Election

Inflation and Everything Else

Remembering Black Monday

For Halloween, Some Thoughts on Active Management

Monday Update: The Consumer Is Back (Sort Of)

Is Global Diversification Worth the Risks?

The Market Today: Shades of 1987?

What Does the Election Mean for Your Portfolio?

Monthly Market Risk Update: October 2016

Monday Update: Business Sentiment Bounces Back

Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2016

September Jobs Report Preview

Should We Be Worried About Deutsche Bank?

The Return of Diversification?

Market Thoughts for October 2016 [Video]

Monday Update: Consumers Stay Strong

Outlook for October and the Fourth Quarter

Looking Ahead: 4 Big-Picture Themes

The Election and Market Worries

What I Learned from the Presidential Debate

Monday Update: Housing Steady, Fed Eyes December

Presidential Debate Preview

Fed Holds but Hints at December Hike

Fundamentals Vs. Policy: It’s All About Growth

What Will the Fed Do?

Monday Update: Economy Stays in Slow-Go, Not Go-Go

The Time Horizon Problem

Boom Times Ahead (Did I Really Just Say That?)

Great News—Median Income Rises!

September Volatility: What It Means (and Doesn’t Mean)

Monday Update: An Unpleasant Surprise from the Service Sector

Bad Day on the Stock Market

Monthly Market Risk Update: September 2016

Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2016

Monday Update: Consumers Rocking, Business Rolling Over

Employment: The Big Picture

Market Thoughts for September 2016 [Video]

August Employment Report Preview

September Market Preview

What About the National Debt?

Appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell, August 29, 2016 [Video]

Monday Update: Home Sales and Durable Goods Continue to Improve

Book Review: Connectography

New GICS Sector Could Benefit REITs

Monday Update: Housing and Manufacturing Still Improving

How Brexit Could Impact Your Real Estate Holdings

The Trouble with “Low-Volatility” Strategies

Monday Update: Consumers Take a Break

Stocks: Partying Like It’s 1999

Where Growth Comes From

The Opposite of Productivity

Monthly Market Risk Update: August 2016

Monday Update: Business Still Expanding, Hiring Strong

Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2016

Employment Report Preview

The Day I Broke My Brain (Er, Smartphone)

Market Thoughts for August 2016 [Video]

Protectionism and Investing

Monday Update: Despite Recent Strong News, GDP Growth Disappoints

Why You Should Have a Financial Advisor

Looking at Future Portfolio Returns

Looking at Future Stock Returns

Looking at Future Bond Returns

Monday Update: Housing Continues to Grow

How to Spot a Bubble: 2016 Edition

More About Student Debt: A Justified Investment

Presidential Politics and the Stock Market

U.S. Financial Markets: Strength Amid Global Turmoil

Monday Update: Three Strong Weeks in a Row

Lower Yields: Not the Typical Risk-Off Trade

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, July 14, 2016 [Video]

Should We Be Worried About the Chinese Currency?

The Market’s New High Score

Monthly Market Risk Update: July 2016

Monday Update: More Positive Surprises

Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2016

Tesla Crashes, Faulty Airbags, and How We Perceive Risk

Record-Low Interest Rates: Not Necessarily a Bad Thing

Appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box, July 5, 2016 [Video]

Monday Update: Positive Surprises Across the Board

Brexit and the Fourth of July

Market Thoughts for July 2016 [Video]

3 Lessons from Brexit

The Case for Brexit

Appearance on Bloomberg TV, June 28, 2016 [Video]

Will Brexit Crash the Stock Market?

Monday Update: Brexit Raises Economic Risks

Brexit After All

How to Be Wrong: Brexit Edition

Beyond Brexit: The Longer-Term Risks

Countdown to the Brexit Vote

Monday Update: More of the Same

Robo-Advice and the Future of the Financial Industry

What the Bond Market Is Telling Us

What Is the Market Really Saying?

The Bond Markets: Accentuating the Negative

Monday Update: Consumers Feel Confident (For the Moment)

Things Fall Apart? Thoughts on the Brexit Vote

Bear Market Worries: The Big Picture

Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2016

Bear Market Risks: Commodities and the Fed

Monday Update: Dismal Jobs Report Raises Concerns

Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2016

Market Thoughts for June 2016 [Video]

What to Worry About: A Bear Market

What Not to Worry About

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Housing Strong, Business Slow

Memorial Day Reflections

Important Vs. Urgent in Investing

Wage Growth and Spending: A Big-Picture Look

The Real Story Behind a Fed Rate Increase

Monday Update: Better Data Continues

Wall Street’s Songs of the Summer

Worried About the Election? Don't Revamp Your Portfolio Yet

5 Economic Research Tools for the Everyday Investor

Managing Your Biases

Monday Update: Consumers Surprise to the Upside

Strong Retail Sales Show Consumers Can Spend—If They Want To

Thoughts on Wage Growth

Black Swans and Wildfires

Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2016

Monday Update: Economic Data Mixed But Improving

How to Sell High and Buy Low

The Presidential Race: Uncertainty Left and Right

Why Are My Investments Doing Badly?

Monthly Market Risk Update: May 2016

Monday Update: Spring’s Not Here Yet

Market Thoughts for May 2016 [Video]

More Thoughts on Retirement Investing

Thoughts on Building a Retirement Portfolio

3 Prime Suspects in the Slow Economic Recovery

Why You Should Stop Worrying About Slow Growth

Monday Update: Housing Data Weak But Momentum Still Positive

The Risk of Higher Oil Prices

The Employment Boom Is Pretty Much Here

New York Primary Results Should Help Reassure Markets

How Much More Expensive Can the Market Get?

Monday Update: Weaker Than Expected

How High Are Taxes, Really?

Economic Growth and the $15 Minimum Wage

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, April 13, 2016 [Video]

The Election and the Financial Markets

Puerto Rico's Debt Crisis: Much Ado About Not Much

Appearance on TheStreet, April 10, 2016 [Video]

Monday Update: More Slow Progress

Where Will Economic Growth Come From?

Everybody's Worried About Growth

Appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell, April 6, 2016 [Video]

Stock Market Earnings Priced for Disaster (But Not to Worry)

Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2016

Monday Update: Slow but Real Economic Improvement

Market Thoughts for April 2016 [Video]

Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2016

A Preview of the March Employment Report

Interest Rates: Lower for Longer It Is

Inflation: Three Shades of Gray

Monday Update: Despite Disappointing News, Slow Growth Should Continue

Interest Rates: Lower for Longer, or Faster and Farther?

The Growing Money Supply—Not a Risk

The Velocity of Money: Safe at Any Speed?

Monday Update: A Mixed Bag for Economic News

Will We Have a Depression?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, March 17, 2016 [Video]

The Student Loan Problem (Or Is It?)

How Likely Is a Recession?

Changing Political Trends: The U.S. and Europe

Monday Update: Quiet But Positive

Are You Ready for . . . the Coming Economic Boom?

ECB Stimulus: A Desperate Move?

The Presidential Election and Free Trade

The Stock Market: Reasons for Optimism

Monday Update: Signs of Spring

Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2016

Looking for the Next Crisis

Monthly Market Risk Update

Market Thoughts for March 2016 [Video]

It’s All About the Jobs

Monday Update: Watch What Consumers Do, Not What They Say

Using Analysis to Improve Lives

The Presidential Election and the Market

Opportunities in Adversity: The Dollar

Opportunities in Adversity: Oil

Monday Update: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

More About Negative Interest Rates

Assessing Risks in the Rest of the World

Is It Worth Investing in Emerging Markets?

Monday Update: Retail Spending Better Than Expected

More Volatility—Plus More Good News

What the Heck Is Going On in the Markets?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, February 10, 2016 [Video]

The Market’s New Year’s Resolution

Bear Market Ahead?

Monday Update: Behind Poor Headline Numbers, More Encouraging News

Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2016

Studies in Economic Failure: Japan Edition

Appearance on TV6's The Ryan Report, January 24, 2016 [Video]

Negative on Japan’s Negative Interest Rates

Market Thoughts for February 2016 [Video]

A Look Back at 2015: Lessons Learned

Monday Update: U.S. Consumers Strong, Industry Struggling

Why the Weak GDP Report Is Nothing to Worry About

From Integration to Collapse: Technology and Global Trends

Low Oil Prices: The Big Picture

The Costs of Low Oil Prices

Monday Update: Growth Remains Healthy, but Slowing

The Road to Recession

The Bungee Jump Market

Low Oil Prices Hammer Markets

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Despite Some Weak Data, Economy Doing Well

Market Plunges Deeper, but No Recession in Sight

What If I’m Wrong About the Markets?

Time to Sell Everything? Not Quite

Why Oil Prices Are Declining

Monday Update: Strong Jobs, Weak Manufacturing

Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2016

What’s Going On in China?

Market Thoughts for January 2016 [Video]

Market Downturn: How Bad Could This Get?

Global Moment: Saudi Arabia, China, and the U.S. Markets

Monday Update: Consumers Confident, but Housing Slows

Examining the Theory of a 7-Year Cycle in U.S. Financial Markets

Navigating Mutual Fund Results

Avoiding Shortsightedness: Looking at Returns for the Next 10 Years

Monday Update: Mixed Data, But More Signs of a Slowdown

Renewal and Hope for Christmas

Where Does the U.S. Dollar Go from Here?

Core Truths About Investing

Monday Update: U.S. Good, Abroad Not So Good

How Do Rising Rates Affect Bond Investments?

Rising Interest Rates, Part 3: What About Investments?

Rising Interest Rates, Part 2: Exploring the Gap

Rising Interest Rates, Part 1: Return to the Natural Level?

Monday Update: An Encouraging Week, Overall

What Keynes and Hayek Can Teach Us About Economics

What’s Wrong with the Way We Measure Risk?

What’s New in the Bank Loan (Floating-Rate) Space?

Gratitudes 2015

Monday Update: More Slow But Steady

Appearance on TheStreet, December 4, 2015 [Video]

Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2015

Taking a Slowdown Seriously

Market Thoughts for December 2015 [Video]

Is Saving Back in Style?

Yuan Becomes Reserve Currency

Monday Update: Slow But Stabilizing

Farm Living Is the Life for Me: A Turkey’s Story

New Risks in the Middle East

Immigration: The Next Issue to Rethink

Monday Update: Mixed Data But Signs of Future Growth

U.S. Dollar Still Failing to Collapse

Fed Minutes Indicate “Solid” Economy, but What Does That Mean?

Some Thoughts on Paris

A Review of The Courage to Act, by Ben Bernanke

Monday Update: Happy Consumers, Still Not Shopping

A Quick Update from the National Conference

A Morning of Giving Back

Are We at a Market Peak?

What Do You Ask Ben Bernanke?

Monday Update: Green Shoots in November

Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2015

Urgency Vs. Importance in Investing

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, November 3, 2015 [Video]

Quick Takes: Momentum Vs. Value, China Demographics, Globalization

Market Thoughts for November 2015 [Video]

The 2016 Outlook: 3 Important Issues

Monday Update: The Slowdown Continues

Slow GDP Growth: A Trick of the Numbers?

The Fed Surprises Again—But with a Treat, Not a Trick

Debt Ceiling News: Washington Steps Back from the Brink

Is China Selling U.S. Treasuries, and Do We Care?

Monday Update: Housing Surprises, But Still Signs of Recent Weakness

A More Detailed Look at Housing Supply and the Economy

A More Detailed Look at Housing Demand

The Debt Ceiling Countdown Continues

Earnings Vs. Revenue: What to Look for This Earnings Season

Monday Update: The Good and Bad—But No Ugly

Looking at Inflation: Objects in Mirror Are Closer Than They Appear

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, October 14, 2015 [Video]

Wall Street Vs. Main Street: Is Walmart Caught in the Middle?

Why the Trans-Pacific Partnership Is a Good Idea

Back to the Basics on Stocks

Monday Update: Generally Positive, But Concerns Ahead?

The Failure of Politics

More on “Snowdown” Vs. Slowdown: What About the Markets?

Are We Really Seeing a Slowdown, or Is It More of a “Snowdown”?

Appearance on Risk & Reward, October 5, 2015 [Video]

Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2015

Monday Update: Disappointing News on Employment

Looking for More Market Crash Signals in the Economic Data

Market Thoughts for October 2015 [Video]

Are There Signs of a Potential Market Crash in the Data?

Being a Good Investor: How to Worry in a Productive Way

Another Day, Another Stock Market Drop. So What?

Monday Update: More Slow and Steady Economic News

Yellen’s Speech: Much Ado About . . . What?

Thinking About a Global Slowdown: What Are the Biggest Threats?

From Gilded Age to Progressive Era: Are We Near the End of a Social Cycle?

Should We Prepare for Another Government Shutdown?

Monday Update: Better Than It Looks

The Fed: Is No News Good News, or Just Bad News Taking Its Time?

The Dog That Did Not Bark: Republican Debate Ignores Economy

What Would You Ask Ben Bernanke?

Will She or Won’t She . . . Raise Rates, That Is?

Monday Update: The Good and the Bad in the Economic Data

A Requiem for the BRICs

Welcome Back to Politics and Some Familiar Threats to the Economy

What Can We Learn from Yesterday’s Market Melt-Up?

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Economic News Pretty Good, Overall

With Labor Day Near, What Can We Take from the August Jobs Report?

Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2015

Market Thoughts for September 2015 [Video]

China’s Role in the U.S. Market Correction

With Further Market Declines Likely, Keep the Long Run in Mind

Monday Update: Back to Normal

China and the U.S. Stock Market

Good Economic News May Not Curb Market Turbulence

The Market’s Downside Risk: How Much Further Could It Fall?

Appearance on Varney & Co., August 24, 2015 [Video]

Monday Update (on Tuesday): Economic News Holding Steady

As Market Fears Grow, Stay Focused on the Long Term

Appearance on Mornings with Maria, August 20, 2015 [Video]

Market Reality Check: Yesterday’s Big Decline

The Fed: Much Ado About (Pretty Much) Nothing

Housing: A Return to Normalcy

China's Bubble Trouble

Monday Update: Steady as She Goes

5 Reasons the System Isn’t Broken

Market Pullback? Maybe Not

China’s Currency Devaluation: Possible Consequences

China’s Yuan Devaluation: What You Need to Know

Monday Update: Slowdown Starts to Speed Up

A Good-News Week for the Economy

Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2015

Market Thoughts for August 2015 [Video]

Bubble Trouble: An Update on Market Valuations

Monday Update: More Slow and Steady Growth

Is Now a Good Time to Invest in Energy?

In the News: The Fed and GDP Growth

Where Is the Wage Growth?

China’s Stock Market Plunges Again (But Not to Worry)

Monday Update: Better U.S. Economic Data Points to Continuing Recovery

Employment: Partying Like It’s 1973

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, July 23, 2015 [Video]

Social Security Faces Its First Reckoning

Is Hillary Clinton Going to Raise Capital Gains Taxes?

Investing in Gold: Don’t Rule It Out

Monday Update: Disappointing U.S. Data, Encouraging International News

Thinking Ahead: The Next Major War

A Closer Look at the Chinese Stock Market

Is U.S. Economic Growth Headed for a Slowdown?

Amid Turbulence, Global Financial System Stays Steady

Greek Debt Deal Looks Like a Temporary Fix

Monday Update: U.S. Posts Solid Data, China and Greece Settle Down

Policy Maneuvers Losing Power to Steer the Markets

Chaotic Day in the Markets: A Reminder to Plan Ahead

Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2015

The Chinese Stock Market Decline: What It Could Mean for the U.S.

Monday Update: U.S. Solid, Greece and China Rock Markets

Market Thoughts for July 2015 [Video]

The Truth Behind the 7-Year Market Cycle

Could What’s Happening with Greek Banks Happen Here?

U.S. Stock Market: Should You Be Worried?

U.S. Economy Grows, Greek Debt Default Looms

What Happens to My Bond Investments When Rates Rise?

Why Greece Matters

Threats to Growth: Boomers' Retirement, Millennials' Student Debt

Greece, the Eurozone, and Jury Duty

What Do Rising Interest Rates Mean for the Housing Market?

The Problems of Success: Inflation

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 18, 2015 [Video]

The U.S. Economy: 3 Reasons for Optimism

Europe in the Next Five Years

Your Investments in the Next 30 Years

Do Rising Rates Mean Falling Stocks? Part 2

What Happens If Greece Falls Off the Debt Cliff?

Do Rising Rates Mean Falling Stocks?

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, June 10, 2015 [Video]

Europe and the U.S.: A Look Back at the Past 3 Years

Greece and the Stock Market: Time for Concern?

What Population Changes Mean for Economic Growth

Market Thoughts for June 2015 [Video]

A Walk Through Today’s Strong Jobs Report

Greece: Teenager with a Credit Card

U.S. Power and the South China Sea

Where Does Economic Growth Come From?

Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2015

U.S. GDP and Slow Growth

Tomorrow’s Big Problems: 4 Issues to Watch

4 Things I Believe About Investing

Today’s Economic News: Expectations and Reality

Appearance on Fox Business Network's Opening Bell, May 26, 2015 [Video]

Memorial Day Reflections

The Book of Jobs

What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 3

What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 2

What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 1: The Natural Interest Rate

Is Free Trade Really Good for Everyone?

Free Trade and American Politics

Interest Rates and the Bond Market: Why You Should Care

Why Greece Really Matters

Greece and China: Risks Continue to Simmer

April Jobs Report: Things Are Looking Up

Appearance on CNBC's Power Lunch, May 7, 2015 [Video]

Janet Yellen’s Warning About the Stock Market

What Happens If Greece Defaults on Its Debt?

Market Thoughts for May 2015 [Video]

Two Articles I Wish I Had Written: On GDP and Shadow Labor

Yuan Vs. Dollar: The Fight of the Century

Economic Risk Factor Update: May 2015

The Fed's as Confused as Everyone Else

Q1 GDP Growth: Negatives and Positives

Considering an Economic Slowdown

Oil and Commodity Prices: Back to the Future

Appearance on CNBC's Closing Bell, April 24, 2015 [Video]

Lessons from the Nasdaq’s New High

The Market and the Economy: Shades of 2004?

The Housing Market: Dead or Hibernating?

China: The Other International Risk

Greek Exit from the Eurozone Looms

What Is the Stock Market Doing Today?

Interest Rates and Market Behavior: 5, 10, and 20 Years Ago

Employment: 5, 10, and 20 Years Ago

Retail Sales Data: “Snowdown,” Not Slowdown

No News Is Good News for the Economy

The Economy: Boom! Boom. Boom?

Job Creation: What Is Normal, Anyway?

Earnings and Expectations

Interpreting the Employment Data

Market Thoughts for April 2015 [Video]

Employment Report Hits a Big Pothole

Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2015

Don’t Be Fooled by These 3 Investing Myths

Europe and the Currency Wars

Currency Wars or Economic Readjustment?

Is the U.S. Losing the Currency Wars?

Market Drops, but It’s Not Time to Panic

Looking for Things to Worry About

Is the Economy Under the Weather?

Warning Signs for the Stock Market

How to Capitalize on a Reversal of Trends

A Return to a More Mysterious Fed

Book Review: The Checklist Manifesto

Fast Failure in Investing

The Return of the Debt Limit

Slow Failure in Investing (It Happens)

Understanding the Risk of Investment Failure

The Way We Measure Risk Is Wrong

Economic Risk Factor Update: March 2015

Returns Over the Next Decade

Employment Rises Strongly Again: So, What’s the Problem?

Is Use-Based Pricing a Bad Thing?

Does Net Neutrality Matter?

Market Thoughts for March 2015 [Video]

The Role of Bonds in Portfolios Today

Ways to Think About Net Neutrality

Negative Interest Rates in Europe

The Hidden Hand of Inflation

Greece and the Minsky Moment

Will She or Won’t She? Janet Yellen and Interest Rates

The Outside View: The U.S. Labor Market

Bubble Trouble?

Are We in Tech Bubble Territory?

Book Review: “Flashpoints,” by George Friedman

Where Does the U.S. Fit in the European Mess?

Appearance on Opening Bell with Maria Bartiromo, February 12, 2015 [Video]

What Will the Market Return This Year?

The Outside View: The U.S. Economy

The Outside View: Russia

Where the Real Risks Are: Europe and Russia

Two Economic Risks for the U.S.

Another Great Employment Report, But Can It Be Trusted?

The Outside View: India

The Outside View: Brazil

Market Thoughts for February 2015 [Video]

Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2015

Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange, February 3, 2015

Making Sense of Mutual Fund Gains and Losses

Fourth-Quarter GDP Isn’t as Bad as It Looks

The U.S. Economy: 5 Key Stories

More Market Turbulence

Storm Report: About to Be Crushed by Glaciers

Greek Election Creates Unease in Europe

The ECB Pulls the Trigger on Stimulus

Why Did My Investments Do Badly in 2014?

Japan: The Outside View

Europe: The Outside View

Time to Worry About the Stock Market?

China: The Outside View

Three Ways to Assess a Country's Economic Future

Which Countries Matter?

Taking the Global View

Jobs Report: Amid Good News, a Darker Cloud

Oil Prices, Interest Rates, and Europe

Do Falling Oil Prices and Interest Rates Spell Trouble?

Stock Market Declines, World Ends—Again

Market Thoughts for January 2015 [Video]

Economic Risk Factor Update: January 2015

Oil Prices and the Economy

Lessons in Economics: Keynes Vs. Hayek

Risk-Reduction Strategies: Advantages and Disadvantages

Worried About a Dollar Collapse? Don't Be . . . Yet

What Determines a Currency's Value?

Hope, Sacrifice, and the Meaning of Christmas

Holiday Gratitudes 2014

Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange, December 23, 2014

Premortem: How the Global Doomsayers Got It Wrong in 2015

Some Geopolitical Thoughts About Cuba and the U.S.

Russia and Cuba: Exploring a Common Theme

Thoughts on the Russian Currency Crisis

Market Turbulence: Nothing to Worry About Yet

Premortem: The Stock Market in 2015

Want to Avert Failure? Try Doing a Premortem

Who Suffers from Cheap Oil?

The New International Economy

Is the Price Drop in Oil All Good?

Economic Risks Recede, Political Risks Return

Where Are the Opportunities in the Global Markets in 2015?

Christmas Comes Early for Employment Statistics

An Updated Look at the Stock Market

Book Review: "Thinking, Fast and Slow," by Daniel Kahneman

What Does Black Friday Mean for the Economy?

Market Thoughts for December 2014

Economic Risk Factor Update: December 2014

Unsustainable Trends: A Closer Look at Limits

U.S. Economic Growth Continues

What Makes an Unsustainable Trend?

Housing Market Closes In on Normal

Expressing Gratitude for the Good That Comes Our Way

3 Trends That Won’t Last Forever

The U.S. and Europe: An International Perspective

Japan Falls into Recession

A Deep Look at Corporate Profit Margins

What Would Another Asian Crisis Mean for the U.S.?

Thoughts on Japan, China, and the Eurozone

Lies, Damned Lies, and Wage Growth

The October Employment Report: More Good News

Problems Abroad: What to Worry About

Could Problems Abroad Derail the U.S. Economic Recovery?

Market Thoughts for November 2014

A Trend to Watch in the Oil Market

Election Day: What to Expect If the Republicans Win

Economic Risk Factor Update: November 2014

Wage Growth Ahoy!

After Fed Statement, a Not-So-Scary Halloween

Appearance on Opening Bell with Maria Bartiromo, October 15, 2014

Back to the Future for the Fed? Not Quite

Will Government Spending Pick Up Again?

European Banks Healthier than Expected: Why We Should Care

Will Globalization Continue?

As Economy Strengthens, No Cause for Doom and Gloom

The U.S. Is Still the Center of the World

IBM’s Woes Highlight a Major Risk to the Market

Where Is the Market Going Next?

U.S. Is Prepared to Weather Market Storms

Is a Market Blizzard Coming?

What Falling Oil Prices Mean for the U.S. Economy

Are We Seeing a Market Correction? Not Yet

An Early Warning: Market Breaks 200-Day Moving Average

A Bumpy Ride for Investors

Why Is the Fed So Worried?

Some Perspective on the Stock Market

The People Side of Investing

Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange, October 6, 2014

Market Thoughts for October 2014

Economic Risk Factor Update: October 2014

A Closer Look at Future Stock Returns

What's Behind Yesterday’s Market Drop?

What Should We Expect from Our Stock Investments?

What Should We Expect from Our Bond Investments?

Smaller Companies Underperform: Another Warning Sign?

Europe’s Crisis Isn’t Over

Everyone’s Worried About the Boomers, but Are the Kids Alright?

Can Profit Margins Keep Climbing? (And What Does It Mean If They Do?)

Why Investors Can’t Afford to Ignore Politics

Why Is Consumer Spending Down?

Hope Versus Fundamentals: Scotland and the Stock Markets

Yesterday’s Federal Reserve Statement: No News Is Good News

Meet the New Fund, Same as the Old Fund? Thoughts on Alternative Investments

The Ties Between Politics and Economics

What Will the Central Banks Do? It’s All About the Marios (and Janets)

A Mission Without a Clear Goal

13 Years Later, How Much Progress Have We Made?

Apple Wants a Slice of the Mobile Payment Business

Government to Banks: Step Further Back from the Edge

Things Fall Apart: Scotland Edition

Signal and Noise: Evaluating the Employment Report

Myth Busting: The Fed Isn’t Really Bankrupt

Market Thoughts for September 2014

End of the World Update: Housing, the Dollar, and More

Economic Risk Factor Update: September 2014

In Honor of Labor Day, Some Thoughts on the Labor Market

Market Timing and Hurricanes: Stay Put or Get Out?

Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange, August 27, 2014

Why I’m Not Terribly Excited About the S&P 500’s Latest Record

How Does the Market React to Rate Changes? Maybe Not the Way You’d Expect

Market Crashes: What Are the Warning Signs?

Is Crash Risk Higher Now?

Demographics and Stock Market Valuations

With Employment Data, the Devil’s in the Details

Demography Is Destiny: A Look at the Next 20 Years

Lower Oil Prices: Winners and Losers

Why Do Oil Prices Keep Dropping?

Europe and China: How Their Troubles May Benefit Us

Time for Another Look at the National Deficit and Debt

SRI and ESG: Investing with the Good Guys

Doing Well by Doing Good

Debt Isn’t a Bad Thing, as Long as It’s Affordable

Why the Bank of America Deal Is Good for Everyone

Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange, August 7, 2014

Should We Be Scared of Market Volatility?

Market Thoughts for August 2014

Economic Risk Factor Update: August 2014

Defining the Inflation Problem

Are Happy Investors Better Investors?

The Benefits of Taking the Long View

A Look at Some Worst-Case Scenarios (and How to Prepare for Them)

Where to Put Your Money: What’s Wrong with Cash?

Fall Preview: Politics and Policy Return to the Fore

When Views Differ: Wall Street Vs. Main Street

Where to Put the Money? How About Prepaying Your Mortgage

Why Investors Should Ask "Am I Proud of This Decision?"

In Life and Investing, Using the Wrong Map Will Get You Lost

Higher Education Surrenders to the Enemy

How Long Can Markets Ignore the Real World?

What Do Tax Inversions and the BRICS Bank Have in Common?

Is Inflation on the Way?

Is the Employment News Really as Good as It Looks?

Where Are Oil Prices Headed?

Appearance on Countdown to the Closing Bell

What Q2 Earnings Mean for the Stock Market

The Fed Plans Its Exit from Stimulus

The U.S. Oil Renaissance: Another Reason to Celebrate America

The Greatest Country in the World? Reasons to Celebrate America

Two Cheers for the Employment Report

Economic Risk Factor Update: July 2014

Reasons to Look Beyond Cap-Weighted Indices

Market Thoughts for July 2014

Does Active Management Deliver Alpha?

Is the Stock Market Getting Overextended?

The Aereo Decision: In Praise of Content Creators

Appearance on CNBC Worldwide Exchange

What If the U.S. Set Oil Prices?

Reasons to Worry About the VIX

U.S. Ex-Im Bank: Should the Government Step Back?

Picking Winners: The World Cup and Investing

Interview with WSJ MoneyBeat

Interview on Fox Business Network's Opening Bell

Fed to Market: Full Speed Ahead

Why the Middle East Matters: Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy

In the News: The Costs and Benefits of More Data

Full Recovery Ahead? A Big-Picture Look at Employment Data

Unexpected News: Iraq Conflict, Oil Prices, and a Political Upset

Fun with Statistics: Correlation and Causation

May Market Update: Financial Markets Close Strong as Economy Thaws

What Housing Slowdown?

Norway: Big Mountains, Big Government, Big Oil

Will We Hit 200K? A Prospective Look at the Employment Numbers

Use It or Lose It, Banks: ECB Introduces Negative Interest Rate

In the News: Carbon, Bank Fines, Deflation, Financial Conflict

What the Low VIX Means for the Stock Market

Market Thoughts for June 2014

Economic Risk Factor Update

Midyear Update: Economy Strengthening, Markets Rangebound

5/29/14 – GDP Report: The Last Blast of Winter

5/29/14 – Interview on Bloomberg Radio’s The Hays Advantage

5/28/14 – The Real Problem with FATCA

5/27/14 – Taxes Are Going Up, Inch by Inch

Mark Your Calendars and Update Your Bookmarks: My Blog Is Moving, June 2, 2014

5/23/14 – Memorial Day Reflections

5/22/14 – Using Benchmarks to Meet Your Investment Goals

5/21/14 – How Moving Averages Can Fail

5/20/14 – Avoiding Drawdowns: How Moving Averages Actually Work

5/20/14 – Interview on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange

5/19/14 – How to Use Moving Averages to Avoid Stock Market Losses

5/9/14 – How to Turn P/E Data into P/E Information

5/16/14 – What Can Cycles Tell Us About Investing?

5/15/14 – Is FATCA Bad News for the U.S. Dollar?

5/14/14 – Back to the Old Normal

5/13/14 – The Federal Deficit Continues to Improve

5/12/14 – Markets Probably Headed Even Higher

5/8/14 – Southeast Asia Heats Up as Ukraine Cools Down

5/7/14 – Alibaba Votes with Its Wallet—for the U.S.

5/6/14 – Why the Weather Hit the Economy So Hard

Market Thoughts for May 2014 Video

5/5/14 – Uncertainty and Investing

5/2/14 – Employment Report Points to More Strength in the Economy

5/1/14 – Gratitudes for the Day

4/30/14 – Weak First Quarter: A Surprise, But Not to Worry

4/29/14 – Off to Hawaii

4/28/14 – Which Economic Statistics Are Worth Looking At?

4/25/14 – Confidence and Earnings

4/24/14 – Six Views of the Initial Jobless Claims Data

4/23/14 – Should We Worry About the Housing Slowdown?

4/22/14 – Some Thoughts on Capital in the Twenty First-Century by Thomas Piketty

4/21/14 – Spring Is a Great Time to Read P.G. Wodehouse

4/17/14 – Why Financial Advisors Are the Good Guys

4/16/14 – What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 3: The Effects on Investments

4/15/14 – What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 2: What’s Keeping Rates Low, and What Happens When It Stops?

4/14/14 – Interview on CNBC's Closing Bell

4/14/14 – What Happens When Interest Rates Rise? Part 1: The Natural Interest Rate

4/11/14 – It’s a Fender Bender, Not a Crash

4/10/14 – Up and Down and Up and Down

4/9/14 – Banks Pay More, Medicare Pays Less?

4/8/14 – Market Declines: What’s Your Plan?

4/7/14 – Market Turbulence Means Investors Should Pay Attention

4/4/14 – The Snowdown Is Over, Spring Is Here

4/3/14 – The Trend Is Your Friend

4/2/14 – High-Frequency Trading and the Average Investor

4/1/14 – High-Frequency Trading and Market Trust

Market Thoughts for April 2014 Video

3/31/14 – The Revenge of Geography by Robert D. Kaplan

3/28/14 – How to Evaluate Investment Track Records

3/28/14 - Interview on Bloomberg Radio

3/27/14 – Quick Hits

3/26/14 – Europe Is Still There, Americans

3/25/14 – What Russia Tells Us About the Global Economy

3/24/14 – Is the Stock Market a Herd of Cows?

3/21/14 – Seeing the Forest Through the Trees

3/20/14 – Janet Yellen Is Not a Loose Woman

3/19/14 – Crash Warnings: They Do Exist, But Aren’t Infallible

3/18/14 – Service Insights from the Wynn GM

3/17/14 – Changing the Odds on Investing

3/14/14 – Short Post from Las Vegas

3/13/14 – Some Thoughts on Las Vegas, Gambling, and Investing

3/12/14 – Free Market?

3/12/14 - Recent Interviews on Fox Business Network

3/11/14 – My Definition of a Bubble: Debt and Asset Prices

3/10/14 – Five Years of the Bull Market

3/7/14 – The Right Measure of Risk (It Depends on the Time Frame)

3/6/14 – U.S. Economy: More of a “Snowdown” than a Slowdown

3/5/14 – Pop/Drop/Pop: Is the Market Rational Vs. Is the Market Right

Market Thoughts for March 2014 Video

3/4/14 – Back to the U.S. Budget

3/3/14 - Ukraine, Uncertainty, and the Financial Markets

2/28/14 – The Future of the U.S. Budget Deficit

2/27/14 – The Future of Inflation

2/26/14 – Taxes Move Back to Center Stage

2/26/14 – Interview on Bloomberg's Taking Stock

2/25/14 – An Update on the Housing Market

2/24/14 - Enjoying the Melt-Up

2/21/14 – Minimum Wages, Corporate Taxes, and Profit Margins

2/20/14 – Reader Question: Emerging Markets and U.S. Equities

2/19/14 – Consumer Spending Trumps All: Minimum Wages and Borrowing

2/18/14 – Party Like It’s 1929

2/14/14 – Bad Weather and Good Karma

2/13/14 – Why Growth Will Persist

2/11/14 – What to Do About Janet Yellen

2/10/14 – The “I Quit” Ad and Other Employment Indicators

2/7/14 – Things to Pay Attention to

2/6/14 – The Assumptions of Growth

2/5/14 – Under the Weather: Snowstorms and Economic Data

Market Thoughts for February 2014 Video

2/4/14 – What to Do?

2/3/14 – The End of the World, Again and Again

1/31/14 – The New New Normal

1/30/14 – The Correction in Perspective

1/29/14 – Less Good Is Not Necessarily Bad

1/28/14 – Where Are Interest Rates Headed? Let’s Consult the Taylor Rule

1/27/14 – Market Turbulence, Timing, and Investment Strategy

1/24/14 – Be Careful: Turbulence Ahead in Emerging Markets

1/23/14 – The Return of Market Timing?

1/22/14 – Safety Lines on the High Wire

1/21/14 – Great(ly Misleading) Expectations

1/17/14 – Risk and Expectations: Driving Fast Vs. Getting There

1/16/14 – Good News Break

1/15/2014 – Reruns: Yogi Berra on Hedge Funds

1/14/14 – What Is the Stock Market Telling Us?

1/13/14 – Does Raising the Minimum Wage Really Reduce Employment?

1/13/14 – Interview on MarketWatch

1/10/14 – Big Surprise on Weak Employment Numbers: Noise or Nail-Biting?

1/9/14 – The Fed Is Actually Pretty Cheerful About the Economy

1/8/14 – Falling into the Opportunity Gap

Market Thoughts for January 2014 Video

1/7/14 – Working on the 2014 Outlook

1/6/14 – Economic Growth Is the New Consensus

1/3/14 – Looking Back at Europe: A Review of Boomerang by Michael Lewis

1/2/14 − Happy New Year! Things Changed Overnight

12/31/13 – What Will Be Different in 2014

12/30/13 – Housing Market Slows – A Healthy Development

12/27/13 Problems Get Solved – Annual Progress Report

12/26/13 – The Wolf of Wall Street – Recommended Book List

12/24/13 – Christmas Cheer

12/23/13 – That ‘70s Show – How the Economy May Grow in the Next Decade

12/20/13 – Gratitudes for the Season

12/19/13 – The Beginning of the End (of Fed Stimulus)

12/18/13 – The Problem of Accounting

12/17/13 Taper Tantrum, Phase 2

12/16/13 – How Much Has the Government Grown?

12/13/13 – Right and Wrong

12/12/13 – Raising the Minimum Wage

12/11/13 – The Federal Budget Deal and 2014

12/10/13 – 2013 Vs. 2007: A Comparison

12/9/13 – The Stock Market in 2014

12/6/2013 – Emerging Markets Worth a Closer Look

12/6/13 – Ending the Year on a Good Note: Employment Up, Budget Deal Possible

Market Thoughts for December 2013 Video

12/5/13 – Better and Better for the Economy—But Stocks Aren’t Cheering

12/4/13 – The Pension System Starts to Stop

12/3/13 – More About Money: Chinese Currency Hits A Milestone

12/2/13 – Cyber Monday Begins

11/29/13 – The Parable of the Turkey

11/27/13 – Asia Heats Up Again

11/26/13 – It’s All Good: Things to Be Thankful For

11/25/13 – What Does “Risk” Mean, and How Can We Match It to Clients?

11/22/13 – A Trip into the Matrix

11/21/13 – Margin Debt Versus Cash on the Sidelines

11/20/13 – New Stock Market Records: Signs of a Bubble?

11/19/13 – The Problem of Money, Part 6: Some Thoughts about Washington, DC

11/19/2013 – Interview on Reuters TV

11/18/13 – The Problem of Money, Part 5: Will the Dollar Collapse?

11/15/13 – The Problem of Money, Part 4: Asset Price Inflation

11/14/13 – The Problem of Money, Part 3: Inflation Today and Tomorrow

11/13/13 – Question and Answer

11/13/13 – The Problem of Money, Part 2: Today’s Monetary System

11/12/13 – The Problem of Money, Part 1: What Is Money?

11/11/13 – Back from National and Thoughts About the Stock Market

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